Local Political Expert — Elections Forecasting & Political

Accountabilities:

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts based strictly on the evidence available at a specified cutoff date, without relying on hindsight or subsequent developments.
• Analyze current or upcoming U.S. Senate, gubernatorial, and statewide contests in states where you have substantial local or regional expertise.
• Assess polling data, electoral dynamics, win probabilities, and market-implied odds, documenting the reasoning and assumptions behind each judgment.
• Explain the causal mechanisms through which political developments, election events, or changes in electoral expectations could affect political and market outcomes.
• Apply strong polling literacy and structured analytical reasoning to evaluate evolving political situations and competing evidence.
• Review AI-generated political analyses and grade their quality, accuracy, reasoning, and usefulness against your own professional standards.
• Provide clear, structured documentation of analytical judgments so that the reasoning can be evaluated and used in AI research and model-development workflows.
• Maintain strict point-in-time discipline by avoiding hindsight, data leakage, confidential information, or material non-public information.
• Complete project-based assignments independently while maintaining consistent analytical quality and professional standards.

Requirements

• Typically 8+ years of direct professional experience in political analysis, forecasting, polling, political risk, or a closely related field, or unusually strong evidence of equivalent expertise.
• Hands-on experience covering current, upcoming, or recent U.S. political races within a specific state or regional electorate.
• Strong on-the-ground knowledge of the electorate, candidates, political environment, and relevant electoral dynamics in the state or states covered.
• Relevant backgrounds may include university political science or survey research, state or regional polling, state-level campaign or party analytics, political-risk analysis, decision desks, or race-rating organizations with state-specific coverage.
• Demonstrated experience making live judgments about polling, probabilities, electoral outcomes, or odds rather than relying primarily on retrospective political commentary.
• Strong understanding of polling methodology, electoral data, probabilistic reasoning, and causal event analysis.
• Ability to distinguish evidence available at a given point in time from information that emerged later and to construct analysis without hindsight.
• Strong written communication skills, with the ability to clearly explain analytical reasoning, assumptions, evidence, and causal mechanisms.
• Analytical rigor, intellectual discipline, attention to detail, and ability to work independently on complex research assignments.
• National political forecasting or political-risk experience is welcome when accompanied by deep knowledge of a specific U.S. state.
• Professional fluency in English.
• Profiles focused primarily on international politics, geopolitics, country risk, communications, journalism, or purely theoretical academic research without direct U.S. race experience are not aligned with the role.

Benefits

• Compensation of $150–$250 USD per hour.
• Fully remote independent-contractor engagement.
• Flexible schedule, allowing work to be completed on your own schedule.
• Weekly payments through Stripe or Wise based on services rendered.
• Opportunity to contribute specialized political expertise to projects focused on evaluating and improving AI-generated analysis.
• Work involving elections, polling, forecasting, political risk, and real-time analytical reasoning.
• Opportunity to review and assess AI-generated research against professional subject-matter standards.
• Collaboration with researchers and professionals working on advanced AI systems.
• Project durations may be extended, shortened, or concluded early depending on project needs and performance.
• Referral opportunity offering up to $1,000 per successful referral, subject to applicable limits and terms.
• Please note that H1-B and STEM OPT candidates are not supported for this engagement.
• Equal-opportunity environment with reasonable accommodations available upon request.